Kremlin says contacts go on but does not confirm the energy truce

What happened

The Kremlin said on Monday 12 October that contacts on President Trump's energy ceasefire were ongoing, without confirming Russia had agreed, and rejected a separate 60-day truce Ukraine proposed. ^{[2, 3, 5]}

The Kremlin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said 'contacts are ongoing' and that Moscow would say more once it had anything to say, according to TASS as the Kyiv Independent reported. He declined to say whether the truce would apply only to oil refineries, CBC News and The Moscow Times reported. The Kremlin's English news list, read on Tuesday 13 October, carried no statement on the truce. ^{[1, 2, 5, 6]}

Mr. Peskov also turned down a call by President Zelenskyy for 60 days of total ceasefire to hold elections. 'In the Kremlin, both President Putin and officials at other levels have repeatedly stated that we do not want a ceasefire,' he said, according to CBC News. The AP reported that he said Mr. Putin would be ready to halt strikes 'specifically on election day'. ^{[3, 5]}

Why it matters

The two sides want different truces. Mr. Zelenskyy said Ukraine will stop striking Russian refineries only if Russia stops striking its power grid, while a White House official told Axios the announcement concerns only oil refineries, the Kyiv Independent reported. 'In Ukraine, we have just one oil refinery,' Mr. Zelenskyy said, and the AP reported that the President blames record US diesel prices on Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries. ^{[8, 3]}

Strikes since Sunday

Mr. Zelenskyy said Russian forces struck six Ukrainian energy facilities on Monday, injuring 33 people, the Kyiv Independent reported. Naftogaz, Ukraine's state oil and gas company, said a Russian attack overnight into Monday set fire to its gas production facilities in the Kharkiv region, CBC News and Al Jazeera reported. ^{[8, 5, 9]}

Russia's own accounts name other targets. Its Defense Ministry said on Monday it struck port infrastructure and a bulk carrier bound for Odesa with military cargo, the AP reported. On Tuesday it said it hit a missile and drone workshop in Kyiv and a logistics center, The Moscow Times reported. ^{[3, 7]}

Ukraine appeared to spare Russian oil refineries in its drone attack overnight into Tuesday, the second day since the announcement, The Moscow Times reported. Mr. Zelenskyy said Ukraine had not struck Russian refineries or the energy sector for those two days, according to the same report. Russia's Defense Ministry said it intercepted 604 Ukrainian drones over 15 Russian regions that night. ^[7]

Russian diesel

Russia has lifted the diesel export ban in place since July, the AP reported, citing a government statement by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. He said output can 'fully satisfy the needs of the local market while delivering the agreed amounts to the global market.' Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs told the AP that 'Russia planned to export more diesel anyway.' ^[4]

What settles it next

No date has been set. A statement from Moscow would settle it: Mr. Peskov said further information would be revealed in due course, CBC News reported. The White House official told Axios that a broader truce covering the power grid could come next, the Kyiv Independent reported. ^{[5, 8]}

Who it reaches

PBF Energy (PBF) is adjacent: it files that its six refineries sell fuels and heating oil across the United States, in the market the truce's refinery terms are aimed at. Valero Energy (VLO) is adjacent: it files that it owns 15 refineries with about 3.2 million barrels a day of throughput capacity. ^{[10, 11]}