Lula wins a fourth term as Brazil's runoff goes his way

What happened

The runoff that the first round of Sunday 4 October set up was decided on Sunday 25 October, when President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat Senator Flávio Bolsonaro for a fourth term. ^{[1, 2, 3]}

With every polling section counted, the electoral court's file gives Lula 64,256,232 votes, or 51.79 percent of valid votes, and Flávio Bolsonaro 59,826,041, or 48.21 percent. The gap is 4,430,191 votes by the desk's arithmetic; AP reported a lead of 'nearly 4.4 million votes'. Turnout was 80.78 percent of 158,745,502 registered voters. ^{[1, 3]}

No candidate who finished second in a first round had won the presidency since democracy returned, NPR and AP reported. NPR counts from 1989, AP from the end of the military dictatorship in 1985. ^{[2, 3]}

Why it matters

Petrobras's controlling shareholder, the federal government, elects a majority of its board and 'could affect these pricing decisions', its 20-F says, and the vote keeps that shareholder in Lula's hands. ^{[6, 1]}

Investors had widely favored Flávio Bolsonaro and worried that Lula may be reluctant to pursue fiscal austerity, Business Today reported, citing Bloomberg. Lula's government plan says the fiscal framework, the federal spending rule, must be kept, Finance Minister Dario Durigan told CNN Brasil, as the Diário do Grande ABC reported on Thursday 8 October. ^{[4, 5]}

The challenge

Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting by two hours, to 7 p.m., after both campaigns asked, NPR reported: Lula's over cut bus services, Bolsonaro's over heavy rain. Some polling stations had already switched off their voting machines and could not resume, NPR and AP reported. ^{[2, 3]}

Flávio Bolsonaro called the result 'inexplicable' and said he would seek to annul the vote, NPR reported. AP wrote that the extension may trigger legal action by him, and noted that a Bolsonaro ally pointed out Zanin is Lula's former lawyer. ^{[2, 3]}

What settles it next

The electoral courts must certify the winners by Friday 18 December under the TSE's calendar, and the new term begins on Tuesday 5 January 2027, AP reported. Before that, the central bank's rate committee, Copom, meets on Tuesday 3 and Wednesday 4 November and publishes its decision from 18:30 on the second day. ^{[8, 3, 9]}

Who it reaches

Petrobras (PBR) is adjacent: its 20-F says the controlling shareholder's actions could affect its fuel pricing, and that changes to its board and management may change its shareholder remuneration policy, the basis of its dividends. ^[6]

Itaú Unibanco (ITUB) is adjacent: its 20-F names the 2026 elections and says changes in federal policy on fiscal discipline and public spending may materially harm businesses in Brazil, its own included. ^[7]