Moderna raises its 2026 revenue outlook after a third-quarter profit

What happened

Moderna reported a third-quarter profit of $162 million on Friday 6 November and raised its 2026 outlook to revenue growth of 15 to 25 percent, from up to 10 percent. ^{[1, 4]}

Revenue for the three months to 30 September was $1.313 billion, against $1.016 billion a year earlier, the company reported. Sales were $780 million in the United States and $533 million abroad. Chief executive Stéphane Bancel said the company aims to 'build a more diversified company.' ^{[1, 5]}

Why it matters

The quarter turned a loss of $200 million a year earlier into a profit, mostly on COVID vaccine sales abroad under long-term government partnerships, the release said. The first nine months still show a net loss of $1.963 billion. The company's 2026 cost of sales outlook of about $1.7 billion includes a one-time $0.9 billion litigation settlement charge. ^{[1, 4]}

Costs and cash

Research spending was $583 million in the quarter, 27 percent less than a year earlier, which the company tied to the end of several late-stage infectious disease trials. It now expects about $2.7 billion of research spending in 2026, down from about $2.9 billion. Selling and administrative costs are still expected at about $1.0 billion. ^{[1, 2]}

Cash and investments were $8.0 billion on 30 September, from $6.9 billion on 30 June, the company said. That includes $2.6 billion in net proceeds from convertible notes, bonds that can turn into shares. The company now expects $8.1 billion to $8.3 billion at year end, against $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion before. ^{[1, 2]}

The medicines

The Food and Drug Administration approved mFLUSIVA, the company's flu vaccine, in August, and the release describes a limited US launch this season because approval came after the annual contracting cycle. With Merck, Moderna reported in October that intismeran plus Keytruda lowered the risk of melanoma returning, or death, by 42 percent in a Phase 3 trial. ^{[1, 5]}

Reuters reported that Moderna is working to submit the US marketing application for intismeran this year and that the companies target a commercial launch in 2027. The norovirus vaccine gets no extra trial group this season after an interim analysis fell short, the release said, reversing the plan of July. ^{[1, 2, 4]}

What settles it next

Moderna holds an Analyst Day on Thursday 12 November, and its cancer candidate mRNA-2808 has an oral presentation at the American Society of Hematology meeting on Saturday 12 December. The company said pivotal data in propionic acidemia, a rare disease, are expected in 2026. Its quarterly report on Form 10-Q was filed on Friday 6 November. ^{[1, 3]}

Who it reaches

Moderna (MRNA) is direct: the results and the outlook are its own. Merck (MRK) is adjacent as its partner on intismeran, and GSK (GSK) is adjacent: the two settled all their patent disputes on 28 October with cross-licenses and no payments. ^{[1, 4]}

Immatics (IMTX) is adjacent: the release says the two companies continue dosing in a Phase 1 study of mRNA-4203 with Immatics' anzu-cel. ^[1]