Consumer sentiment rises to 51 as inflation expectations ease

What changed since chapter twenty-four

The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers, Preliminary Results for November 2026, published Friday 6 November, put sentiment at 51.0 from 48.0, as the ten-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.86 percent. ^{[1, 2, 9]}

Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.3 percent from 4.7, the lowest since August. Long-run expectations, for the next five to ten years, edged down to 3.4 percent from 3.5. Interviews ran from Tuesday 20 October to Monday 2 November. ^{[1, 9]}

Markets priced about a 78 percent chance of a quarter-point increase at the Fed's December meeting after Friday's jobs report, against about 67 percent on Thursday, Reuters reported. Traders also moved the expected final increase to April from June, the agency reported. ^[12]

The record

On the Treasury's par yield curve, the two-year yield ended Friday at 4.51 percent, against 4.46 on Thursday. The ten-year ended at 4.86 against 4.84, and the thirty-year at 5.26 against 5.25. By the desk's arithmetic the two-year was up 5 basis points, hundredths of a percentage point, and the ten-year 2. ^[2]

Over the week, by the desk's arithmetic, the ten-year was down 8 basis points from 4.94 percent on Friday 30 October. The one-month bill, at 4.02 percent, ended above the 3-3/4 to 4 percent range the Federal Open Market Committee held on Wednesday 28 October. A quarter-point increase would lift that range to 4 to 4.25 percent, Fox Business noted. ^{[2, 3, 16]}

The index matched its November 2025 reading, and current conditions rose to 51.0 from 46.7, the survey's table shows. About 57 percent of consumers said unprompted that high prices had eroded their living standards, the most since May. Director Joanne Hsu said comments showed 'growing anxiety over a possible AI bubble', which cost of living worries dwarfed. ^{[1, 17, 18]}

The year-ahead figure stands above February's 3.4 percent and above the 3.7 percent increase in consumer prices over the twelve months to September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Long-run expectations stay above their 2024 range of 2.8 to 3.2 percent. In a report of Friday 23 October, Hsu wrote of risks that 'elevated inflation expectations could become entrenched'. ^{[1, 10, 11]}

Who it reaches

CME Group (CME) is adjacent: its FedWatch tool is the gauge InvestmentNews and Fox Business cited for December. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) are adjacent as banks whose lending margin the Treasury curve sets. Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are adjacent as retailers whose shoppers the survey reads. ^{[13, 16, 2, 1]}

D.R. Horton (DHI), Lennar (LEN) and PulteGroup (PHM) are adjacent as builders, and Rocket Companies (RKT) and UWM Holdings (UWMC) as lenders, whose borrowers face Freddie Mac's 7.18 percent average of Thursday 5 November. Mike Fratantoni of the Mortgage Bankers Association said a resilient job market with inflation 'still too high' is likely to lead the committee to raise rates in December. ^{[7, 15]}

Where the sources disagree

Reuters reported a 78 percent chance after the jobs report, down from 85 just after its release; InvestmentNews and Fox Business cited 76.8 percent on CME's tool. Schwab's 9:15 a.m. note put it near 73 percent, up from 60 during Thursday's sell-off, where Reuters had Thursday at about 67. ^{[12, 13, 16, 14]}

Bloomberg reported economists' median estimate for sentiment at 48, while Schwab cited Briefing.com at 47.2. The survey says sentiment fell 5 percent among the largest stock holders; Bloomberg quoted Hsu putting their personal finances 12 percent lower. Press accounts gave the ten-year near 4.87 percent during Friday's session, against the Treasury's close of 4.86. ^{[9, 14, 1, 13, 2]}

What settles it next

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index for October on Tuesday 10 November at 8:30 a.m., and the Producer Price Index for October on Friday 13 November at 8:30. SIFMA recommends that bond markets close on Wednesday 11 November for Veterans Day. ^{[5, 6, 8]}

The survey's final November reading comes on Friday 20 November at 10 in the morning, Eastern time. The committee meets on Tuesday 8 and Wednesday 9 December, with a Summary of Economic Projections, and November's Consumer Price Index follows on Thursday 10 December. ^{[1, 4, 5]}