Vistra earns $1.14 billion in third quarter and sets first 2027 range

What happened

Vistra reported net income of $1.14 billion for the third quarter of 2026 on Friday 6 November, against $652 million a year earlier, and set its first guidance for 2027. ^[1]

The quarter's profit included an unrealized gain of $559 million on hedges expected to settle in later years. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA, the company's earnings measure before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization with some items removed, was $2,378 million, against $1,581 million. Vistra said higher realized energy and capacity prices, the plants bought from Lotus and the return of Martin Lake Unit 1 drove the increase. ^[1]

Why it matters

Vistra narrowed its 2026 range for that measure to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion, from $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion in August, which raises the midpoint. Its first 2027 range, $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion, includes the Cogentrix plants and the Meta contract for the Perry nuclear plant, chief executive Jim Burke said on the call. The August outlook for 2027, $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion, had left both out. ^{[1, 2, 3]}

Cash, contracts and buybacks

For free cash flow before growth, its cash measure after upkeep spending, the company gave $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion for 2026 and $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion for 2027. ^[1]

The release names two power contracts. The 405 megawatt Pulaski solar plant in Illinois began operating under a power purchase agreement with Microsoft. Vistra also signed a 20-year, 207 megawatt agreement with New Era Energy and Digital at its Odessa gas plant in Texas. ^[1]

New Era said the Odessa power will serve the first phase of its Texas Critical Data Center, beside the plant, from the third quarter of 2027. Vistra will receive a 5 percent non-voting interest in the part of the project it powers once delivery starts, New Era said. ^[5]

Vistra closed its purchase of Cogentrix Energy, ten gas plants of about 5,500 megawatts, on Friday 30 October; Burke put the net price, stock included, at about $4 billion. The board added $1.5 billion to the buyback authorization, leaving about $2.5 billion to use by the end of 2028. Vistra said it had repurchased about $6.7 billion of shares since November 2021 and paid $231 million in common dividends in the first nine months of 2026. ^{[1, 3, 6]}

Texas after the election

Burke said on the call that 'the election results do not change our fundamental view of the opportunities Vistra has.' Asked about a possible Texas moratorium on data centers, he said one 'would be problematic' for many customers, and that construction had started at Comanche Peak. Utility Dive reported in August that Amazon is building a $5 billion data center near that nuclear plant, which is set to deliver it power from 2027. ^{[3, 4]}

What settles it next

Vistra files as a large accelerated filer, so its quarterly report for the period is due within 40 days of 30 September, by Monday 9 November by the desk's arithmetic. Power to New Era's data center is expected from the third quarter of 2027, and Comanche Peak's deliveries to Amazon are set to begin in 2027. ^{[7, 8, 5, 4]}

Who it reaches

Vistra (VST) is direct: the results and guidance are its own. Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) are adjacent: Meta's Perry contract is counted in the 2027 range, and Microsoft buys the Pulaski plant's power. New Era Energy and Digital (NUAI) and Amazon (AMZN) are adjacent as buyers of power from the Odessa and Comanche Peak plants for their Texas data centers. ^{[1, 3, 4, 5]}