Company Analysis

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER)

Nasdaq: BAER · Services-Business Services, NEC · Belgrade, MT · filing with the SEC since 2022
Grade4.4
◀ Past 3.9● Present 3.6▶ Future 5.4
1 est.

The grade of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.

Nine metrics read from its own filings, by tense
Headline grade
4.4/10
◀ Past3.925% of the headline
● Present3.635% of the headline
▶ Future5.440% of the headline

All three tenses have at least two readings, so the archetype blend applies as printed.

Of the nine metrics, 8 read as filed from the record and 1 is an SI estimate, each with its reasoning, its confidence and what would change it on its card.

◀ Past

What did they actually do?

3.9/1025% of the headline grade · 2 of 3 filed, 1 estimated

Surviving crises

as filed
0.5/10

Has it survived what it has been through?

3 warning events since 2022; the latest 2026-10-30.

weight 22% of this tense · 5th percentile among 105 sector filers · read for itself

From the record

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s filings since 2022 show 3 warning events of 3 kinds: a notice about its exchange listing (8-K item 3.01, the latest 2026-10-30); a warning not to rely on past financial statements (8-K item 4.02, the latest 2024-07-01); an auditor change (8-K item 4.01, the latest 2023-01-27) (its current reports).

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Track record

as filed
7.0/10

What has it actually done, year after year?

+38.3% a year over 4 filed years; profitable in 1 of 4.

weight 45% of this tense · 71st percentile among 99 sector filers · read for its customers

From the record

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s 4 filed years say what it did: revenue went from $46 million in fiscal 2022 to $123 million in fiscal 2025, up 38.3% a year; it rose in 3 of 3 years; it never fell from a peak; net income was positive in 1 of 4 of those years (its annual reports).

What it rests on

  • revenue growth over the filed span38.3%top 14% of its family
  • the share of years revenue rosetop 18% of its family
  • the share of filed years with a profitbottom 32% of its family
  • the deepest fall from a revenue peak0.0%top 18% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Shareholder treatment

SI estimate
1.9/10

How has it treated the people who own it?

SI estimate 1.9/10, confidence 35 of 100 (one part).

weight 33% of this tense · 19th percentile among 98 sector filers · read for its shareholders

SI estimate Inferred, not read as filed

Why it is an estimate
Read from one part only, the share count over the years, which ranks in the bottom 19% of 98 in its family; fewer than two of the parts can be read: the share count over the years, and the cash returned against a positive operating cash flow or net income.
What the record cannot read
Fewer than two of the parts can be read: the share count over the years, and the cash returned against a positive operating cash flow or net income.
How it was reasoned
one part: the share count over the years, the one part on file, ranked among 98 in its family.
Confidence
35 of 100
What would change it
A filing that carries the missing parts replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

From the record

SI estimate, not a filed reading: Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s shareholder treatment is put at 1.9 of 10 with a confidence of 35 of 100, because read from one part only, the share count over the years, which ranks in the bottom 19% of 98 in its family; fewer than two of the parts can be read: the share count over the years, and the cash returned against a positive operating cash flow or net income. A filing that carries the missing parts replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

● Present

What are they doing right now?

3.6/1035% of the headline grade · 3 of 3 filed

Financial health

as filed
1.8/10

Is it financially healthy right now?

Leverage 204%: owes 204¢ per asset dollar.

weight 33% of this tense · 18th percentile among 98 sector filers · read for itself

From the record

Return on equity: in the fiscal year ended 2025-12-31, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s shareholders' equity was below zero, so the profit on it is not read, and gross profitability: its products earned about 16 cents per dollar of everything the company owns. Leverage: it owed about 204 cents per dollar of assets, and net share issuance: its share count grew 7.4% over the year (the filed statements).

What it rests on

  • what it owes per dollar of assetsbottom 2% of its family
  • gross profit against assetsbottom 29% of its family
  • the share count against the year beforebottom 23% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Industry position

as filed
5.4/10

How strong is its position in its industry?

top 46% of 101 in its family; net margin 3.4%.

weight 45% of this tense · 54th percentile among 101 sector filers · read for its customers

From the record

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s standing among 101 graded names in its industry family: revenue of $123 million in fiscal 2025 ranks in the bottom 22% by size; a net margin of 3.4% ranks in the bottom 47%; revenue growth of 38.3% a year over the last 3 filed years ranks in the top 7% (its annual reports).

What it rests on

  • revenue against the family$123Mbottom 22% of its family
  • net margin3.4%bottom 47% of its family
  • three-year revenue growth38.3%top 7% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Leadership

as filed
2.7/10

What are the people in charge doing?

bottom 27% of 65 in its family for leadership; chief executive since 2024.

weight 22% of this tense · 27th percentile among 65 sector filers · read for its shareholders

From the record

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s leadership, from its insiders' filings and its current reports: the chief executive on the record is Davis, Samuel Carl (CEO & President, as filed), filing under that title since 2024-07-10, 2.3 years (bottom 35% of its family); the 15 officers and directors filing in the last fifteen months have been on the record a median of 2.7 years (bottom 12%); 10 officer or director changes were reported on Form 8-K since 2023-11-13, against the 15 people in charge now (bottom 34%; fewer changes for each person reads higher) (the Form 4 record, its Form 8-K reports). Years count from a person's first filing in the SEC's data sets, which begin in 2006, so each is a floor.

What it rests on

  • officer and director changes on Form 8-K, against the people in charge10 in three years among 15 peoplebottom 34% of its family
  • the median years the people in charge have filed2.7 yearsbottom 12% of its family
  • the chief executive's years on the record2.3 yearsbottom 35% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

▶ Future

What are they set up to do next?

5.4/1040% of the headline grade · 3 of 3 filed

Room to expand

as filed
2.1/10

How much room does it have to grow?

bottom 21% of 99 in its family for room to expand.

weight 33% of this tense · 21st percentile among 99 sector filers · read for itself

From the record

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s room to grow, from the newest filed statements (fiscal 2025): cash of $31 million against debt of $212 million leaves -54.8% of its assets as net cash, bottom 2% of its family; cash from operations less capital spending is -52.3% of revenue (bottom 12%); a gross margin of 42.1% (top 50%) (its annual report).

What it rests on

  • cash less debt against assets-54.8%bottom 2% of its family
  • cash from operations less capital spending against revenue-52.3%bottom 12% of its family
  • gross margin42.1%top 50% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Growth drivers

as filed
7.7/10

What could actually drive growth from here?

top 23% of 99 in its family for growth drivers.

weight 45% of this tense · 77th percentile among 99 sector filers · read for its customers

From the record

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s growth drivers, from the filed years to fiscal 2025: revenue grew 38.3% a year over the last three filed years against 38.3% over all 4, speeding up (top 32% of its family); the newest year grew 24.6% (top 24%); capital spending grew 46.8% a year (top 13%) (its annual reports). Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. tags no split of its revenue by line in the annual report on file, so growth by line cannot be read here; research and capital spending are on the trend.

What it rests on

  • three-year growth against the whole span+0.0 points a yeartop 32% of its family
  • the newest year's revenue growth24.6%top 24% of its family
  • three-year growth of capital spending46.8%top 13% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Expectations vs reality

as filed
5.8/10

Did its newest year beat what its own record pointed to?

top 42% of 93 in its family for expectations against reality.

weight 22% of this tense · 58th percentile among 93 sector filers · read for its shareholders

From the record

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s newest year against its own record: revenue of $123 million in fiscal 2025 came in 14.5% below the $144 million its prior three years' pace pointed to (bottom 10% of its family); net income of $4 million against a prior three-year average of $45 million (top 27%); a net margin of 3.4% against -74.2% before (top 10%) (its annual reports).

What it rests on

  • revenue against the prior three years' pace-14.5%bottom 10% of its family
  • net income against the prior three years' average+109%top 27% of its family
  • net margin against its prior average+77.6 pointstop 10% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

The grade is the company against its own industry, from its filings. It is not a view on the share price. How the grade is made

SI Assistanton BAER · research, not advice