Company Analysis

Nova Minerals Corp (NVA)

NYSE: NVA · Gold and Silver Ores · Caulfield, AU · filing with the SEC since 2022
Grade4.0
◀ Past 2.4● Present 4.3▶ Future 6.2
7 est.

The grade of Nova Minerals Corp

Nine metrics read from its own filings, by tense
Headline grade
4.0/10
◀ Past2.440% of the headline
● Present4.335% of the headline
▶ Future6.225% of the headline

All three tenses have at least two readings, so the archetype blend applies as printed.

Of the nine metrics, 2 read as filed from the record and 7 are SI estimates, each with its reasoning, its confidence and what would change it on its card.

◀ Past

What did they actually do?

2.4/1040% of the headline grade · 1 of 3 filed, 2 estimated

Surviving crises

as filed
1.2/10

Has it survived what it has been through?

1 warning event since 2022; the latest 2026-09-29.

weight 45% of this tense · 12th percentile among 73 sector filers · read for itself

From the record

Nova Minerals Corp's filings since 2022 show 1 warning event: a late-report notice (Form NT 10-K or NT 10-Q, the latest 2026-09-29) (its current reports).

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Track record

SI estimate
5.0/10

What has it actually done, year after year?

SI estimate 5.0/10, confidence 20 of 100 (family median).

weight 33% of this tense · 50th percentile among 44 sector filers · read for its customers

SI estimate Inferred, not read as filed

Why it is an estimate
Fewer than three filed years of revenue on file, so the desk assumes the typical reading of its industry family, the median of 44 members with one.
What the record cannot read
Fewer than three filed years of revenue on file.
How it was reasoned
family median, 44 readings behind it.
Confidence
20 of 100
What would change it
Its next annual report on file with the inputs replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

From the record

SI estimate, not a filed reading: Nova Minerals Corp's track record is put at 5.0 of 10 with a confidence of 20 of 100, because fewer than three filed years of revenue on file, so the desk assumes the typical reading of its industry family, the median of 44 members with one. Its next annual report on file with the inputs replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

Shareholder treatment

SI estimate
0.7/10

How has it treated the people who own it?

SI estimate 0.7/10, confidence 35 of 100 (one part).

weight 22% of this tense · 7th percentile among 63 sector filers · read for its shareholders

SI estimate Inferred, not read as filed

Why it is an estimate
Read from one part only, the share count over the years, which ranks in the bottom 7% of 63 in its family; fewer than two of the parts can be read: the share count over the years, and the cash returned against a positive operating cash flow or net income.
What the record cannot read
Fewer than two of the parts can be read: the share count over the years, and the cash returned against a positive operating cash flow or net income.
How it was reasoned
one part: the share count over the years, the one part on file, ranked among 63 in its family.
Confidence
35 of 100
What would change it
A filing that carries the missing parts replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

From the record

SI estimate, not a filed reading: Nova Minerals Corp's shareholder treatment is put at 0.7 of 10 with a confidence of 35 of 100, because read from one part only, the share count over the years, which ranks in the bottom 7% of 63 in its family; fewer than two of the parts can be read: the share count over the years, and the cash returned against a positive operating cash flow or net income. A filing that carries the missing parts replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

● Present

What are they doing right now?

4.3/1035% of the headline grade · 1 of 3 filed, 2 estimated

Financial health

as filed
1.5/10

Is it financially healthy right now?

ROE -109%: lost 109¢ per shareholder dollar. Leverage 49%: owes 49¢ per asset dollar.

weight 45% of this tense · 15th percentile among 62 sector filers · read for itself

From the record

Return on equity: in the fiscal year ended 2026-06-30, Nova Minerals Corp lost about 109 cents for every dollar of shareholders' money. Leverage: it owed about 49 cents per dollar of assets, and net share issuance: its share count grew 49.0% over the year (the filed statements).

What it rests on

  • what it owes per dollar of assetsbottom 25% of its family
  • return on equitybottom 8% of its family
  • the share count against the year beforebottom 14% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Industry position

SI estimate
5.1/10

How strong is its position in its industry?

SI estimate 5.1/10, confidence 20 of 100 (family median).

weight 33% of this tense · 50th percentile among 44 sector filers · read for its customers

SI estimate Inferred, not read as filed

Why it is an estimate
No filed revenue on file, so the desk assumes the typical reading of its industry family, the median of 44 members with one.
What the record cannot read
No filed revenue on file.
How it was reasoned
family median, 44 readings behind it.
Confidence
20 of 100
What would change it
Its next annual report on file with the inputs replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

From the record

SI estimate, not a filed reading: Nova Minerals Corp's industry position is put at 5.1 of 10 with a confidence of 20 of 100, because no filed revenue on file, so the desk assumes the typical reading of its industry family, the median of 44 members with one. Its next annual report on file with the inputs replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

Leadership

SI estimate
8.6/10

What are the people in charge doing?

SI estimate 8.6/10, confidence 35 of 100 (one part).

weight 22% of this tense · 86th percentile among 19 sector filers · read for its shareholders

SI estimate Inferred, not read as filed

Why it is an estimate
Read from one part only, officer and director changes on Form 8-K over three years, against the people in charge, which ranks in the top 14% of 19 in its family; the record of its people begins on 2026-03-17 (a listing, a merger or a first filing under the rules) and its chief executive and most of the people in charge have filed since then, so the record shows a floor of 8 months and cannot see past it; a floor under five years is not read as years in charge.
What the record cannot read
The record of its people begins on 2026-03-17 (a listing, a merger or a first filing under the rules) and its chief executive and most of the people in charge have filed since then, so the record shows a floor of 8 months and cannot see past it; a floor under five years is not read as years in charge.
How it was reasoned
one part: officer and director changes on Form 8-K, against the people in charge, the one part on file, ranked among 19 in its family.
Confidence
35 of 100
What would change it
A filing that carries the missing parts replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

From the record

SI estimate, not a filed reading: Nova Minerals Corp's leadership is put at 8.6 of 10 with a confidence of 35 of 100, because read from one part only, officer and director changes on Form 8-K over three years, against the people in charge, which ranks in the top 14% of 19 in its family; the record of its people begins on 2026-03-17 (a listing, a merger or a first filing under the rules) and its chief executive and most of the people in charge have filed since then, so the record shows a floor of 8 months and cannot see past it; a floor under five years is not read as years in charge. A filing that carries the missing parts replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

▶ Future

What are they set up to do next?

6.2/1025% of the headline grade · 0 of 3 filed, 3 estimated

Room to expand

SI estimate
9.0/10

How much room does it have to grow?

SI estimate 9.0/10, confidence 35 of 100 (one part).

weight 22% of this tense · 90th percentile among 65 sector filers · read for itself

SI estimate Inferred, not read as filed

Why it is an estimate
Read from one part only, cash less debt against assets, which ranks in the top 10% of 65 in its family; the record does not carry two of the four parts: cash less debt against assets, cash from operations less capital spending against revenue, gross margin, research against revenue.
What the record cannot read
The record does not carry two of the four parts: cash less debt against assets, cash from operations less capital spending against revenue, gross margin, research against revenue.
How it was reasoned
one part: cash less debt against assets, the one part on file, ranked among 65 in its family.
Confidence
35 of 100
What would change it
A filing that carries the missing parts replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

From the record

SI estimate, not a filed reading: Nova Minerals Corp's room to expand is put at 9.0 of 10 with a confidence of 35 of 100, because read from one part only, cash less debt against assets, which ranks in the top 10% of 65 in its family; the record does not carry two of the four parts: cash less debt against assets, cash from operations less capital spending against revenue, gross margin, research against revenue. A filing that carries the missing parts replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

Growth drivers

SI estimate
5.4/10

What could actually drive growth from here?

SI estimate 5.4/10, confidence 20 of 100 (family median).

weight 33% of this tense · 50th percentile among 41 sector filers · read for its customers

SI estimate Inferred, not read as filed

Why it is an estimate
The record does not carry three filed years of revenue and two of the four parts: acceleration, the newest year's growth, the growth of research and of capital spending, so the desk assumes the typical reading of its industry family, the median of 41 members with one.
What the record cannot read
The record does not carry three filed years of revenue and two of the four parts: acceleration, the newest year's growth, the growth of research and of capital spending.
How it was reasoned
family median, 41 readings behind it.
Confidence
20 of 100
What would change it
Its next annual report on file with the inputs replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

From the record

SI estimate, not a filed reading: Nova Minerals Corp's growth drivers is put at 5.4 of 10 with a confidence of 20 of 100, because the record does not carry three filed years of revenue and two of the four parts: acceleration, the newest year's growth, the growth of research and of capital spending, so the desk assumes the typical reading of its industry family, the median of 41 members with one. Its next annual report on file with the inputs replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

Expectations vs reality

SI estimate
5.3/10

Did its newest year beat what its own record pointed to?

SI estimate 5.3/10, confidence 20 of 100 (family median).

weight 45% of this tense · 50th percentile among 38 sector filers · read for its shareholders

SI estimate Inferred, not read as filed

Why it is an estimate
The record does not carry four filed years of revenue and two of the three parts: revenue against the prior pace, earnings against the prior average, the margin change, so the desk assumes the typical reading of its industry family, the median of 38 members with one.
What the record cannot read
The record does not carry four filed years of revenue and two of the three parts: revenue against the prior pace, earnings against the prior average, the margin change.
How it was reasoned
family median, 38 readings behind it.
Confidence
20 of 100
What would change it
Its next annual report on file with the inputs replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

From the record

SI estimate, not a filed reading: Nova Minerals Corp's expectations vs reality is put at 5.3 of 10 with a confidence of 20 of 100, because the record does not carry four filed years of revenue and two of the three parts: revenue against the prior pace, earnings against the prior average, the margin change, so the desk assumes the typical reading of its industry family, the median of 38 members with one. Its next annual report on file with the inputs replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

The grade is the company against its own industry, from its filings. It is not a view on the share price. How the grade is made

SI Assistanton NVA · research, not advice