Company Analysis

Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA)

Nasdaq: SERA · Services-Medical Laboratories · Salt Lake City, UT · filing with the SEC since 2011
Grade3.3
◀ Past 4.6● Present 2.0▶ Future 3.9
1 est.

The grade of Sera Prognostics, Inc.

Nine metrics read from its own filings, by tense
Headline grade
3.3/10
◀ Past4.630% of the headline
● Present2.040% of the headline
▶ Future3.930% of the headline

All three tenses have at least two readings, so the archetype blend applies as printed.

Of the nine metrics, 8 read as filed from the record and 1 is an SI estimate, each with its reasoning, its confidence and what would change it on its card.

◀ Past

What did they actually do?

4.6/1030% of the headline grade · 2 of 3 filed, 1 estimated

Surviving crises

as filed
7.8/10

Has it survived what it has been through?

No warning events in its filings since 2017.

weight 33% of this tense · 78th percentile among 27 sector filers · read for itself

From the record

Sera Prognostics, Inc.'s filings since 2017 show no warning events in the scan: no bankruptcy or receivership notice, no debt default notice, no exchange listing notice, no restatement warning, no auditor change, no material cyber incident and no late-report notice (its current reports).

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Track record

as filed
2.8/10

What has it actually done, year after year?

+26.5% a year over 6 filed years; profitable in 0 of 6.

weight 45% of this tense · 28th percentile among 23 sector filers · read for its customers

From the record

Sera Prognostics, Inc.'s 6 filed years say what it did: revenue went from $25 thousand in fiscal 2020 to $81 thousand in fiscal 2025, up 26.5% a year; it rose in 4 of 5 years; the deepest fall was 75% from fiscal 2023 to fiscal 2024; net income was positive in 0 of 6 of those years (its annual reports).

What it rests on

  • revenue growth over the filed span26.5%bottom 41% of its family
  • the share of years revenue rosebottom 41% of its family
  • the share of filed years with a profitbottom 24% of its family
  • the deepest fall from a revenue peak74.8%bottom 7% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Shareholder treatment

SI estimate
3.4/10

How has it treated the people who own it?

SI estimate 3.4/10, confidence 35 of 100 (one part).

weight 22% of this tense · 34th percentile among 24 sector filers · read for its shareholders

SI estimate Inferred, not read as filed

Why it is an estimate
Read from one part only, the share count over the years, which ranks in the bottom 34% of 24 in its family; fewer than two of the parts can be read: the share count over the years, and the cash returned against a positive operating cash flow or net income.
What the record cannot read
Fewer than two of the parts can be read: the share count over the years, and the cash returned against a positive operating cash flow or net income.
How it was reasoned
one part: the share count over the years, the one part on file, ranked among 24 in its family.
Confidence
35 of 100
What would change it
A filing that carries the missing parts replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

From the record

SI estimate, not a filed reading: Sera Prognostics, Inc.'s shareholder treatment is put at 3.4 of 10 with a confidence of 35 of 100, because read from one part only, the share count over the years, which ranks in the bottom 34% of 24 in its family; fewer than two of the parts can be read: the share count over the years, and the cash returned against a positive operating cash flow or net income. A filing that carries the missing parts replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

● Present

What are they doing right now?

2.0/1040% of the headline grade · 3 of 3 filed

Financial health

as filed
3.0/10

Is it financially healthy right now?

ROE -42%: lost 42¢ per shareholder dollar. Leverage 26%: owes 26¢ per asset dollar.

weight 33% of this tense · 30th percentile among 25 sector filers · read for itself

From the record

Return on equity: in the fiscal year ended 2025-12-31, Sera Prognostics, Inc. lost about 42 cents for every dollar of shareholders' money, and gross profitability: its products earned less than nothing, about minus 0 cents per dollar of everything the company owns (revenue less the cost of revenue). Leverage: it owed about 26 cents per dollar of assets, and net share issuance: its share count grew 43.7% over the year (the filed statements).

What it rests on

  • what it owes per dollar of assetstop 37% of its family
  • return on equitybottom 21% of its family
  • gross profit against assetsbottom 9% of its family
  • the share count against the year beforebottom 25% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Industry position

as filed
0.4/10

How strong is its position in its industry?

bottom 4% of 24 in its family; net margin -39417.3%.

weight 45% of this tense · 4th percentile among 24 sector filers · read for its customers

From the record

Sera Prognostics, Inc.'s standing among 24 graded names in its industry family: revenue of $81 thousand in fiscal 2025 ranks in the bottom 7% by size; a net margin of -39417.3% ranks in the bottom 2%; revenue growth of -32.9% a year over the last 3 filed years ranks in the bottom 2% (its annual reports).

What it rests on

  • revenue against the family$81,000bottom 7% of its family
  • net margin-39417.3%bottom 2% of its family
  • three-year revenue growth-32.9%bottom 2% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Leadership

as filed
3.8/10

What are the people in charge doing?

bottom 38% of 17 in its family for leadership; chief executive since 2023.

weight 22% of this tense · 38th percentile among 17 sector filers · read for its shareholders

From the record

Sera Prognostics, Inc.'s leadership, from its insiders' filings and its current reports: the chief executive on the record is Lindgardt, Zhenya (Chief Executive Officer, as filed), filing under that title since 2023-11-08, 3 years (bottom 26% of its family); the 17 officers and directors filing in the last fifteen months have been on the record a median of 5 years (bottom 30%); 3 officer or director changes were reported on Form 8-K since 2023-11-13, against the 17 people in charge now (top 43%; fewer changes for each person reads higher) (the Form 4 record, its Form 8-K reports). Years count from a person's first filing in the SEC's data sets, which begin in 2006, so each is a floor.

What it rests on

  • officer and director changes on Form 8-K, against the people in charge3 in three years among 17 peopletop 43% of its family
  • the median years the people in charge have filed5.0 yearsbottom 30% of its family
  • the chief executive's years on the record3.0 yearsbottom 26% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

▶ Future

What are they set up to do next?

3.9/1030% of the headline grade · 3 of 3 filed

Room to expand

as filed
3.6/10

How much room does it have to grow?

bottom 36% of 24 in its family for room to expand.

weight 22% of this tense · 36th percentile among 24 sector filers · read for itself

From the record

Sera Prognostics, Inc.'s room to grow, from the newest filed statements (fiscal 2025): cash of $4 million against no long-term debt tagged leaves 3.9% of its assets as net cash, bottom 37% of its family; cash from operations less capital spending is -32529.6% of revenue (bottom 2%); a gross margin of -102.5% (bottom 9%); research spending of 16260.5% of revenue (top 3%) (its annual report).

What it rests on

  • cash less debt against assets3.9%bottom 37% of its family
  • cash from operations less capital spending against revenue-32529.6%bottom 2% of its family
  • gross margin-102.5%bottom 9% of its family
  • research spending against revenue16260.5%top 3% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Growth drivers

as filed
3.4/10

What could actually drive growth from here?

bottom 34% of 23 in its family for growth drivers.

weight 45% of this tense · 34th percentile among 23 sector filers · read for its customers

From the record

Sera Prognostics, Inc.'s growth drivers, from the filed years to fiscal 2025: revenue grew -32.9% a year over the last three filed years against 26.5% over all 6, slowing (bottom 11% of its family); the newest year grew 5.2% (bottom 33%); research spending grew -2.6% a year (bottom 47%); capital spending grew -2.8% a year (bottom 45%) (its annual reports). Sera Prognostics, Inc. tags no split of its revenue by line in the annual report on file, so growth by line cannot be read here; research and capital spending are on the trend.

What it rests on

  • three-year growth against the whole span-59.4 points a yearbottom 11% of its family
  • the newest year's revenue growth5.2%bottom 33% of its family
  • three-year growth of research spending-2.6%bottom 47% of its family
  • three-year growth of capital spending-2.8%bottom 45% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Expectations vs reality

as filed
4.8/10

Did its newest year beat what its own record pointed to?

bottom 48% of 20 in its family for expectations against reality.

weight 33% of this tense · 48th percentile among 20 sector filers · read for its shareholders

From the record

Sera Prognostics, Inc.'s newest year against its own record: revenue of $81 thousand in fiscal 2025 came in 96.2% above the $41 thousand its prior three years' pace pointed to (top 2% of its family); net income of $32 million against a prior three-year average of $38 million (bottom 43%); a net margin of a loss larger than its revenue against losses larger than its revenue before (bottom 3%) (its annual reports).

What it rests on

  • revenue against the prior three years' pace96.2%top 2% of its family
  • net income against the prior three years' average+16%bottom 43% of its family
  • net margin against its prior averagedown more than 100 pointsbottom 3% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

The grade is the company against its own industry, from its filings. It is not a view on the share price. How the grade is made

SI Assistanton SERA · research, not advice