Gulf oil shut-ins fall below 10 percent as first weekly data arrive

What changed since chapter six

The offshore regulator put 9.92 percent of Gulf oil output still shut in on Wednesday 14 October, down from 16.13 percent on Tuesday, in what it called likely its final daily update. ^{[1, 2]}

From operators' reports, the Marine Minerals Administration put oil shut in at 202,371 barrels a day and gas at 237 million cubic feet a day, 11.07 percent of gas output. Four platforms remained evacuated, and operators reported output back to nearly 90 percent of normal; the regulator generally stops daily updates at 90 percent. What remains shut in may reflect routine maintenance or other causes unrelated to the storm, it said. ^[1]

The record

The Energy Information Administration published its weekly report for the week ending Friday 9 October on Thursday 15 October, a day late for Monday's Columbus Day holiday. It estimated US crude output at 13.679 million barrels a day, 300,000 less than the week before. During hurricanes it builds that estimate by subtracting the offshore regulator's daily shut-in volumes from a forecast, its notes say. ^{[9, 5, 8]}

The report week closed at 7 a.m. on Friday 9 October, the notes say. Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, around 8:30 p.m. CDT that evening, the National Hurricane Center said. The regulator had counted 25.08 percent of Gulf oil shut in on Wednesday 7 October, inside the week, and 71.51 percent at 11 a.m. CDT on Friday, its peak, after the week closed. ^{[8, 10, 3, 4]}

Refineries ran harder, not less. Gulf Coast refiners processed 9.414 million barrels of crude a day against 9.263 million the week before, at 96.3 percent of capacity against 95.0 percent. Nationally, runs were 135,000 barrels a day higher, at 93.5 percent of capacity, the EIA said. ^{[6, 7]}

Commercial crude stocks were 8.6 million barrels lower at 415.6 million, 3 percent below the five-year average, the EIA said, with the Gulf Coast's at 234.4 million against 243.6 million. Gasoline stocks were 3.5 million barrels higher and distillate stocks, diesel and heating oil, 2.5 million lower. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the government's emergency stock, held 282.983 million barrels, unchanged; the Energy Department authorized its storm exchange on Saturday 10 October, after the week closed. ^{[5, 6, 7, 17, 13, 8]}

The Coast Guard's port table still lists Gulfport, Mobile, Panama City, Pascagoula and Pensacola as open, last changed on Monday 12 October. Under its Marine Safety Unit at Houma it lists Port Fourchon and the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port as open, entries last changed in September 2024. ^{[11, 12]}

Who it reaches

BP (BP) is direct: its storm page's final update, of Saturday 10 October, says it is returning staff and working to restart Na Kika and Thunder Horse. BP America may borrow up to 2 million barrels of reserve crude, as may ExxonMobil (XOM), which is adjacent: its exchange speeds deliveries of reserve crude already awarded, the Energy Department said. ^{[16, 13]}

Shell (SHEL) and Chevron (CVX) are direct: Shell shut in its Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito and Appomattox facilities and Chevron began shutdown procedures at four operated facilities, Splash247 reported. Bloomberg reported before landfall that Chevron's Pascagoula, Mississippi, refinery, which can process 356,000 barrels of crude a day, lay on the western edge of the storm's projected path. No statement from either company dated Wednesday or Thursday was found, and nothing read says how that refinery fared. ^{[19, 20]}

NextEra Energy (NEE) is direct through its subsidiary Florida Power and Light, whose newest count, Tuesday's, had more than 422,000 outages restored, more than 95 percent of customers affected. On Wednesday 14 October it announced more than $2 million in storm assistance, with up to $3,200 each in bill credits and repair grants for qualifying customers. ^{[14, 15]}

Where the sources disagree

Mizuho's Bob Yawger, quoted by Reuters, said 'There was nobody bringing oil into the Gulf of Mexico' in the storm week. The EIA's tables show national crude imports 791,000 barrels a day lower at 6.0 million, but Gulf Coast imports still at 1.332 million against 1.527 million. By the desk's arithmetic, the West Coast, at 873,000 against 1.630 million, accounts for 757,000 of the drop. ^{[17, 5, 6]}

OilPrice.com wrote that commercial crude stocks were 3 percent above the five-year average; the EIA's summary says 3 percent below. It also reported that the American Petroleum Institute's figures, released a day earlier, showed an 11.12 million barrel fall, against the EIA's 8.6 million. Splash247 put the storm's peak at nearly 63 percent of Gulf oil shut in; the regulator's Friday 9 October release shows 71.51 percent. ^{[18, 7, 19, 4]}

What settles it next

The EIA's next weekly report, for the week ending Friday 16 October, is due at its standard time, 10:30 a.m. eastern on Wednesday 21 October. That week began at 7:01 a.m. on Friday 9 October, so it takes in the regulator's counts from the 71.51 percent peak to Wednesday's 9.92 percent. ^{[9, 8, 4, 1]}

Florida Power and Light said its crews will not stop until every customer is restored. BP and ExxonMobil are to return the borrowed reserve crude with additional barrels in 2027, the Energy Department said. ^{[14, 13]}