Gulf oil shut-ins fall to 16 percent as Florida lights come back

What changed since chapter five

The offshore regulator's count for Tuesday 13 October put 16.13 percent of Gulf oil output shut in, against 29.63 percent on Monday, with the same five platforms still evacuated. ^{[1, 2]}

The Marine Minerals Administration reported 329,059 barrels a day of oil and 355 million cubic feet a day of gas shut in, from operators' reports as of 11:00 a.m. CDT. Gas shut in was 16.59 percent, against 24.81 percent on Monday. By the desk's arithmetic, against Monday's 604,503 barrels and 531 million cubic feet, 275,444 barrels of oil and 176 million cubic feet of gas a day were no longer shut in. ^{[1, 2]}

The record

The five evacuated platforms were 1.35 percent of the 371 manned platforms in the Gulf of America, as on Monday, the release says. One of the 11 rigs that are not dynamically positioned stayed evacuated, and none of the 17 that hold position with thrusters had moved. The survey drew on 19 company reports, against 25 on Monday. ^{[1, 2]}

The regulator says its shut-in figures are operators' estimates of what they expected to produce that day. By the desk's arithmetic, 329,059 barrels over 16.13 percent implies about 2.04 million barrels a day of expected output, the same base as Monday's. The regulator said it would update the figures at 1 p.m. CDT each day as appropriate. ^{[1, 2]}

Reuters carried the same Tuesday figures, attributed to the regulator. Argus reported that firms including BP and Shell began to redeploy staff and restart production over the weekend. Shell said on Sunday that its Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito and Appomattox facilities had no storm damage, according to Argus. ^{[5, 6, 7]}

The Coast Guard's port table for its Mobile sector still lists Gulfport, Mobile, Panama City, Pascagoula and Pensacola as open, last changed on Monday 12 October. The Energy Department's newsroom lists no reserve release after Saturday's, which authorized an exchange of up to 4 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the government's emergency crude stock. ^{[12, 11, 10]}

Florida Power and Light said on Tuesday 13 October that it had restored more than 422,000 outages, more than 95 percent of customers affected. That includes the hardest-hit areas of Escambia and Santa Rosa counties, which its Sunday revision had set for Tuesday. Some customers there may still be without power because of extensive damage or difficult access, it said. ^{[3, 4]}

Across the state line, Brewton Mayor Frank Nalty estimated that 650 crews remained in town to clear trees from power lines, WSFA reported on Tuesday. Officials said thousands remained without power throughout Escambia County, Alabama, according to the station. The town's hospital got power back on Monday, Nalty said. ^[9]

Who it reaches

BP's storm page still carries its final update of Saturday 10 October: it was 'returning personnel and working to safely restart production' at Na Kika and Thunder Horse. BP and ExxonMobil may each borrow up to 2 million barrels of reserve crude, returned with premium barrels in 2027, the Energy Department said. ^{[8, 10]}

Florida Power and Light is a subsidiary of NextEra Energy, its release says. Southern Company's annual report names Alabama Power, Georgia Power and Mississippi Power as its traditional electric operating companies, whose common stock it owns. Chevron's storm page could not be read, and no recognized report read for this chapter gives its Pascagoula refinery's state after landfall. ^{[3, 15]}

Where the sources disagree

The regulator's two measures still part ways. Five platforms stayed evacuated on both days while the oil shut in nearly halved, and the release explains the gap only by calling its figures operators' estimates. ^{[1, 2]}

The restoration records use different measures. FPL counts restored outages as a share of customers affected, while the Alabama figures are officials' estimates of crews and of customers still out, as WSFA reported them. Argus gives the regulator's hour as noon ET, the same moment as the release's 11:00 a.m. CDT. ^{[3, 9, 6, 1]}

What settles it next

The regulator's next count is due at 1 p.m. CDT on Wednesday 14 October, as appropriate, and will show how much of the 16.13 percent remains shut in. The Energy Information Administration's weekly petroleum report for the week ending Friday 9 October is due on Thursday 15 October, moved for Columbus Day. ^{[1, 14]}

Nalty said he hoped federal disaster money could follow by Wednesday, once Escambia County's assessment reaches the state, WSFA reported. The National Hurricane Center's outlook at 2 a.m. EDT on Wednesday 14 October does not expect a tropical cyclone to form over the next seven days. ^{[9, 13]}