Gulf oil shut-ins fall below 30 percent as five platforms stay empty

What changed since chapter four

The offshore regulator's count for Monday 12 October found five production platforms still evacuated and 29.63 percent of Gulf oil output shut in, against Sunday's 32 platforms and 57.54 percent. ^{[1, 2]}

The Marine Minerals Administration reported 604,503 barrels a day of oil shut in, from operators' reports as of 11:00 a.m. CDT. Gas shut in was 531 million cubic feet a day, 24.81 percent, against 49.11 percent on Sunday. By the desk's arithmetic, against Sunday's 1,173,863 barrels and 1,051 million cubic feet, 569,360 barrels a day of oil and 520 million cubic feet of gas were no longer shut in. ^{[1, 2]}

The record

The five evacuated platforms were 1.35 percent of the 371 manned platforms in the Gulf of America, the release says, against 8.63 percent on Sunday. One of the 11 rigs that are not dynamically positioned was still evacuated, as on Sunday, and none of the 17 that hold position with thrusters had moved. The survey drew on 25 company reports, against 31 on Sunday. ^{[1, 2]}

The regulator says its shut-in figures are operators' estimates of what they expected to produce that day, and that undamaged facilities come back online once standard checks are done, while damaged ones may take longer. By the desk's arithmetic, 604,503 barrels over 29.63 percent implies about 2.04 million barrels a day of expected output, the same base as Sunday's. The regulator said it would update the figures at 1 p.m. CDT each day as appropriate. ^{[1, 2]}

The Coast Guard's port table for its Mobile sector, last changed on Monday 12 October, lists Gulfport, Mobile, Panama City, Pascagoula and Pensacola as open. The Energy Department's newsroom lists no reserve release after Saturday's, which authorized an emergency exchange of up to 4 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the government's emergency crude stock. ^{[4, 5, 6]}

Florida Power and Light said it had restored more than 380,000 outages as of 10 p.m. CDT on Monday 12 October, more than 85 percent of customers affected. That met the goal it set on Sunday night, when it cut its first estimate of 95 percent for the 435,000 customers the storm reached. It said Escambia and Santa Rosa counties remained on track to be essentially restored by the end of Tuesday. ^{[9, 10]}

Alabama Power said at 8 a.m. on Sunday that about 90 percent of affected customers had power back, after more than 390,000 lost it, Yahoo News reported. On Monday, according to WALA, the utility counted 4,100 outages in Escambia County, 1,600 in Monroe County and about 700 in Baldwin County. It expected the rest of Brewton and Monroeville back by the end of Wednesday, WALA reported. ^{[14, 13]}

Who it reaches

Florida Power and Light is a subsidiary of NextEra Energy, its release says. Southern Company owns all the common stock of Alabama Power, Georgia Power and Mississippi Power, its annual report says, and Alabama Power's update says crews from both sister companies joined its own. ^{[9, 11, 14]}

BP's storm page still carries its final update of Saturday 10 October: it was 'returning personnel and working to safely restart production' at Na Kika and Thunder Horse. BP and ExxonMobil may each borrow up to 2 million barrels of reserve crude, the Energy Department said, returned with premium barrels in 2027. ^{[8, 5]}

Chevron's Pascagoula refinery can process 356,000 barrels a day of crude and was on the western edge of the storm's forecast path on Thursday 8 October, Bloomberg reported via gCaptain. NPR reported that S&P Global Energy's Debnil Chowdhury put Pascagoula and the Vertex plant in Alabama at about 2.5 percent of U.S. refining capacity. Both reports predate landfall, and neither says how the plant fared. ^{[16, 15]}

Where the sources disagree

The regulator's two measures still move apart. Only 1.35 percent of manned platforms were evacuated, yet 29.63 percent of oil stayed shut in, and the release explains the gap only by calling its figures operators' estimates of expected output. ^[1]

Utility Dive reported about 160,000 customers in Florida and Alabama without power at 1 p.m. ET on Monday, citing a tracking site. FPL's own count at 10 p.m. put more than 85 percent of its affected customers back, though it counts restored outages, not customers. WALA reported an FPL goal of 70 percent restoration in Escambia and Santa Rosa by the end of Monday, which the company's release does not repeat. ^{[12, 9, 10, 13]}

What settles it next

The regulator's next daily count, due at 1 p.m. CDT as appropriate, will show how much of the 29.63 percent remains shut in. FPL's own schedule ends with Escambia and Santa Rosa on Tuesday 13 October, and Alabama Power's work in Brewton and Monroeville runs to the end of Wednesday 14 October, WALA reported. ^{[1, 9, 13]}

The Energy Information Administration's weekly petroleum report for the week ending Friday 9 October is due on Thursday 15 October, moved for Columbus Day. The National Hurricane Center's outlook at 2 a.m. EDT on Tuesday 13 October gives its one Atlantic system, west of the Cabo Verde Islands, a 10 percent chance of forming over seven days. ^{[7, 3]}