Democrats projected to win both House and Senate in the midterms

What happened

News organizations projected early on Wednesday 4 November that Democrats won both the House and the Senate in the midterm elections of Tuesday 3 November, and nothing is certified. ^{[1, 2, 3, 4, 5]}

NBC News projected about 255 House seats for Democrats, an estimate it said could move by a few seats, in a story updated at 12:44 a.m. ET. The CNBC Election Desk said at 6:22 a.m. ET that Democrats were projected to win at least 250 seats and Republicans at least 160. CNN's page at 7:16 a.m. ET counted 231 Democratic seats to 139 Republican. ^{[3, 1, 2]}

ABC News's tracker showed 54 Democratic Senate seats to 44 Republican at 7:13 a.m. ET. CNN named seven Republican-held seats that flipped: Ohio, Iowa, South Carolina, Maine, North Carolina, Kansas and Texas. Alaska and Mississippi were not called. ^{[4, 2, 5]}

The record

NBC News wrote that the Democrats take control of the House on Jan. 3, and that Hakeem Jeffries is expected to be sworn in as speaker that day. The date is a Sunday by the calendar. ABC Australia wrote that the new Congress is not sworn in until 3 January. ^{[3, 11]}

Jeffries named four priorities, NBC News reported: reversing Medicaid cuts, extending Affordable Care Act credits, restoring congressional authority over tariffs and stopping the Iran war. ABC Australia wrote that bills aimed at removing tariffs, ending the war and cutting health insurance costs would still need 60 Senate votes and could be vetoed. ^{[3, 11]}

The current Congress returns Monday 9 November, ABC Australia wrote, and the stopgap funding law expires Friday 11 December. Holland & Knight listed the other year-end items: surface transportation, the Farm Bill, health programs and the defense authorization bill. It named two paths, a large spending package or a short stopgap into January or March 2027. ^{[11, 10]}

The crypto market-structure bill, the Clarity Act, failed a Senate vote 49 to 50 on 15 September, and it must pass before the new Congress convenes on 3 January or be reintroduced, Bitcoin Magazine wrote. An industry advocate called a lame-duck attempt a long shot. Analyst Jaret Seiberg of TD Cowen wrote on election day that he does not expect it to pass over the next two years. ^{[14, 15]}

Reuters reported that Treasury yields dipped and the dollar fell as results came in, and that US stock futures fell sharply before paring losses. CNN reported futures pointing higher before 5:30 a.m. ET. Reuters quoted J.P. Morgan's Tai Hui that a debt ceiling comes some time next year. ^{[9, 2]}

Who it reaches

Crypto trading platforms are reached through the Clarity Act, the industry's market-structure bill, which Bitcoin Magazine wrote must pass before the new Congress convenes or be reintroduced. ^[14]

Defense contractors are reached through the defense authorization bill, one of the year-end items Holland & Knight listed. Health programs are reached through two of Jeffries's priorities, reversing Medicaid cuts and extending Affordable Care Act credits, NBC News reported. ^{[10, 3]}

Where the sources disagree

The House counts differ because the outlets measure different things at different hours. NBC gave a projected final total, CNBC a floor, and CNN a tally of seats projected so far. The CBC counted 208 Democratic seats to 125 Republican at about 1:20 a.m. ET. ^{[3, 1, 2, 7]}

Cointelegraph, citing the Associated Press, put Democrats at 51 Senate seats when Iowa decided control, while ABC and CNN later counted 54. Analysts also differ on meaning: Natixis's Christopher Hodge said the direct economic effects are not huge, while Monex's Jesper Koll doubted policymaking would change much. On crypto, Sen. Angela Alsobrooks has said the bill could pass before January, Bitcoin Magazine reported, while Seiberg expects no passage for two years. ^{[8, 4, 2, 9, 14]}

What settles it next

Mississippi's absentee ballots must arrive by Tuesday 10 November, CNN wrote, and Alaska may need a ranked-choice count about two weeks after the election, Yahoo News reported. Governing lists Alaska's certification as Wednesday 25 November and Texas's as Monday 7 December. ^{[2, 6, 12]}

Michigan's state canvassers must certify by Monday 23 November, the Brennan Center wrote. CNN's House page listed races in Arizona, California and other states still to be projected. Congress returns Monday 9 November, funding expires Friday 11 December, and the new Congress is seated on Sunday 3 January 2027. ^{[13, 2, 11, 3]}