Mississippi lead widens as Alaska Senate count waits on mail

What changed since chapter one

Since Wednesday 4 November, Democrat Scott Colom's unofficial lead in Mississippi's Senate count grew from 43 votes to 1,138, while Alaska's race stayed within about 640 votes with roughly a quarter uncounted. ^{[5, 6, 8, 17]}

CNN projected on Thursday 5 November that Democrats will win at least 245 House seats. NBC News had 242 Democratic seats projected to 151 Republican at 3:08 a.m. ET. Its Senate count stood at 54 Democratic seats to 44 Republican, with Mississippi and Alaska the two uncalled races. ^{[8, 10, 9]}

The record

The Mississippi count moved through Wednesday. WLBT reported Colom ahead of Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by 43 votes at 3 a.m., and NBC News reported 65 later in the day. By Wednesday evening WLBT and ABC News reported 464,926 votes for Colom to 463,788 for Hyde-Smith, with about 95.6 percent of the expected vote in. ^{[5, 4, 6, 3]}

Secretary of State Michael Watson said on Wednesday that about 3,600 mail ballots could still arrive, plus an unknown number of affidavit ballots, the state's name for provisional ballots, ABC News reported. Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day count if received by 5 p.m. on Tuesday 10 November, the state's election calendar says. Voters who cast an affidavit ballot for lack of photo ID have until the same hour to show one. ^{[3, 1]}

The secretary of state's office told ABC News that Mississippi has no recount: a candidate cannot request one and none is triggered automatically. A candidate may examine ballot materials after certification and then file a legal challenge, the office said. There is no runoff in this race, the Mississippi Free Press wrote: a simple plurality wins. ^{[3, 7]}

In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola led Sen. Dan Sullivan by 637 votes in the state's Wednesday update, Newsweek reported, while Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher who shares the senator's name, drew 3,600. Mailed ballots count if they arrive within 10 days of Election Day, or 15 from overseas. If no candidate passes 50 percent, ranked choices are counted on Wednesday 18 November. ^{[17, 14, 13]}

A federal judge on Sunday 1 November dismissed the Justice Department's suit to block certification if the senator lost, and the department said it would appeal, the AP reported. The department says the namesake ran 'as a frivolous candidate to confuse voters'; Peltola's campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee deny any role, Newsweek reported. Gov. Mike Dunleavy has declined to say whether the election will be certified if Peltola wins while under investigation, but state law gives certification to elections director Carol Beecher, the Anchorage Daily News wrote. ^{[16, 17, 15]}

Who it reaches

Defense contractors are reached through the budget: the stopgap law funds the government to Friday 11 December, and Breaking Defense wrote that the lame-duck session faces major decisions on defense funding. Health insurers are reached through the expired Affordable Care Act credits, which Hakeem Jeffries has called a primary objective. NBC News wrote that lower enrollment and rising costs are driving some major insurers out of that market. ^{[18, 19, 20]}

Where the sources disagree

Counts of the ballots left in Mississippi differ. Colom's campaign cited roughly 15,000 provisional ballots, CNN and ABC News reported, while the secretary of state's office told ABC it had no definitive number. NBC News counted about 6,000 mail ballots sent out but not returned as of Monday, against Watson's 3,600 on Wednesday. ^{[8, 3, 4]}

Outlets also differ on the House. NBC's live blog listed 42 races still to be decided, CBS News about 75, and 270toWin wrote that 36 were uncalled by Decision Desk HQ. Estimates of the final Democratic total run from NBC's 259 to CBS's range of 251 to 268; Jeffries said at least 255. ^{[20, 11, 12, 10]}

The rules for a challenge are read differently too: the state's office described a ballot box exam followed by a legal challenge, ABC reported. NBC News wrote that state law gives no other way to contest a Senate general election. Ben Griffith, an election lawyer who teaches at the University of Mississippi, called a county by county exam 'beyond the scope of feasibility.' ^{[3, 4]}

What settles it next

Mississippi's mail and photo ID deadline is 5 p.m. on Tuesday 10 November, and county election commissions must send their returns to the secretary of state by Friday 13 November. The secretary of state declares the general election results on Thursday 3 December, the state's calendar says. ^[1]

Alaska counts ranked choices on Wednesday 18 November and targets certification on Wednesday 25 November, Alaska Public Media and the Alaska Beacon reported. ^{[13, 14]}

Government funding under the stopgap law runs out on Friday 11 December. The Constitution has Congress meet at noon on 3 January unless a law appoints a different day, and 3 January 2027 falls on a Sunday by the calendar. ^{[18, 2]}