Guards claim two more mine hits; no maritime officials confirm

What changed since chapter 26

Iran's Guards claimed on Friday 6 November that two more tankers hit mines, a day after Iranian media reported five tankers on fire, and AFP said no maritime officials confirmed any of it. ^{[2, 1]}

The Guards' statement, carried by state television, said one tanker was east of the strait and the other within it, on an 'unauthorized route'. It said both had 'deactivated all of their navigation and identification systems', caught fire and were brought to a stop, AFP reported. ^{[2, 1]}

Reuters reported on Thursday 5 November that the Guards said two tankers struck naval mines and another caught fire. UKMTO, the UK maritime security agency, reported at least five vessels with incidents since Sunday 1 November. October's pace was close: it said 35 vessels were hit, the most of any month. ^{[3, 4]}

The record

UKMTO reported on Thursday that two unidentified projectiles hit a tanker about 50 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, and that the crew's status, the damage and any spill were not known. The International Maritime Organization's tracker listed 129 confirmed incidents and 24 seafarer deaths in the Middle East as of Thursday, Outlook India reported. Its newest entry, dated Wednesday 4 November, was the VELOS SAPPHIRE, damaged north of Qatar with one seafarer missing. ^{[1, 5]}

US Central Command's commander, Admiral Brad Cooper, said in a video released on Thursday 27 August that US forces had cleared Iranian mines from the international shipping lanes, Bloomberg reported. People familiar with the matter told Bloomberg the work had not cleared all of an estimated 80 to 150 mines laid. AFP said last month's CENTCOM statement was that it had helped Gulf countries export 1.5 billion barrels of oil through Hormuz since summer, and that it had recently said all mines were cleared. ^{[6, 2]}

Earlier Guards mine claims drew a direct reply. On Monday 14 September CENTCOM called the Guards' claim that the tanker El Gaia struck a mine 'false', saying Iranian weapons hit it twice, gCaptain reported. Of the Guards' claim that two supertankers struck mines on Saturday 17 October, the Joint Maritime Information Center wrote on 18 October that 'there is no substantiation to these claims'. ^{[8, 7]}

Oman said on Thursday it was in talks with Iran on a joint system to control traffic through the strait, CBS reported. Reuters said Iranian officials have met Qatari mediators since last week, that neither side had announced a breakthrough, and that a senior Iranian official said the two remain far apart. Two sources told Reuters they believed President Donald Trump was still likely to order resumed hostilities. ^{[1, 3, 4]}

CBS reported that Saudi-led coalition air defenses intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile aimed at the Medina region on Thursday and two aimed at Najran on Friday. The Houthis claimed a drone disrupted air traffic at the Dammam airport on Thursday, CBS said, citing their spokesman. ^{[1, 9]}

CBS and AP reported Brent crude at $96.70 on Thursday, after a drop of nearly 9 percent the day before and a high of $116 on Friday 23 October. Gulf News reported Brent at $93.63 on Thursday in Beijing morning trading. Reuters said prices were down more than $20 a barrel from the week before. ^{[1, 9, 3]}

Who it reaches

Scorpio Tankers (STNG) is adjacent: its third-quarter release says the conflict 'kept the global fleet dislocated', and its LR2 tankers earned $55,184 a day, against $31,482 a year earlier. Frontline (FRO) is adjacent: its second-quarter release says risk across Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Black Sea is 'rapidly changing with little warning'. ^{[10, 11]}

Frontline also wrote that renewed Red Sea attacks 'have put pressure on the alternative route that handled much of the displaced Saudi Arabian volume'. It expects more cargo around the Cape of Good Hope. That is the bypass side of the series: Saudi crude leaves from the Red Sea coast, where the Houthi threat sits. ^[11]

Marsh McLennan (MRSH) is adjacent: Insurance Business reported on 2 September that its marine head Marcus Baker put war-risk rates for Hormuz transits at 0.15 to 0.25 percent of vessel value before the war. After the first strikes he put them at 3 to 10 percent. On a $150 million tanker, the publication said, 10 percent is $15 million for one transit. ^[12]

Where the sources disagree

The Thursday count differs by outlet: CBS carried the Guards' navy saying one tanker hit a mine early that day, and later the Guards' words on two tankers and a tugboat. Reuters wrote that two tankers struck mines and another caught fire; AFP wrote five tankers and a tugboat. No count comes from maritime officials, and UKMTO's reports describe projectiles where the Guards say mines. ^{[1, 3, 2]}

Outlook India said explosions were heard on Monday 2 November on Qeshm and Hengam islands, and that no public CENTCOM or Pentagon statement confirming the operation was located. Gulf News put the US strike on Qeshm on Tuesday. CBS said Brent was last under $100 on 30 September; Gulf News and AFP said early October. ^{[5, 9, 1]}

The desk could not read UKMTO's and JMIC's own pages, which refused automated access. Their words here come only through gCaptain, Reuters, CBS and Outlook India, and the newest JMIC text read is the 18 October assessment. ^{[7, 3]}

What settles it next

The Energy Information Administration publishes its next Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday 10 November. Its October edition assumed Middle East oil flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter. ^[13]

Qatar said on Tuesday that the United States and Iran were reviewing proposals, Reuters reported. A US official told CBS the third carrier group would not reach the Middle East for at least two weeks. Axios reported preparations for possible major combat, which Gulf News noted are not an order. ^{[3, 1, 9]}