US disables a blockade runner as Guards claim two more mine hits

What changed since chapter 27

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said late on Saturday 7 November that two more oil tankers hit mines and caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz, without naming either ship. ^{[8, 9]}

The Guards said one tanker was in the eastern part of the strait and the other within it, both 'engulfed in intense flames', AFP reported. They said both ships had switched off their navigation and positioning systems on an unauthorized route. The Guards did not give the tankers' names or nationality, AFP said. ^{[9, 8, 10]}

Separately, US Central Command said a US military aircraft fired precision munitions at the stern of the St. Kitts-flagged cargo ship Huda in the Gulf of Oman on Saturday. It said the crew had ignored repeated warnings and tried to breach the naval blockade of Iran several times, after a call at an Iranian port. CENTCOM said its forces had told the crew to leave the targeted spaces first. ^{[1, 2, 3]}

The record

UKMTO, the UK maritime security agency, said in Warning 199-26 that it had a delayed report of a tanker on fire about eight nautical miles northwest of Khasab, Oman, at about 1920 UTC on Saturday. Military authorities reported the crew evacuated, it said. The warning gave no cause, no ship name and no casualty count, according to Arab Times and Siasat. ^{[4, 5]}

UKMTO also reported an incident involving a bulk carrier and military forces about 18 nautical miles east of Khor Fakkan, UAE, on Saturday, without naming which country's forces. The crew's condition and the damage were not known, it said. Arab News counted it as the sixth vessel in reported incidents in the Gulf of Oman and Hormuz corridor in November. ^{[6, 7]}

CENTCOM said that since July its forces had redirected 147 commercial vessels that complied and disabled five merchant ships that refused. The Joint Maritime Information Center's Update 111, dated Thursday 5 November, gave CENTCOM's figures of 1 November as 144 redirected and four disabled. CENTCOM gave no detail on the Huda's crew or damage, Anadolu reported. ^{[1, 2, 12]}

The same JMIC update reported four attacks in the strait over 96 hours, all off Oman's Musandam coast between 1 and 3 November. It said transits remained 'substantially reduced' against the 2025 baseline, with about 31 US-assisted transits a day, Gulf News reported. ^[12]

On the Saudi side, an official source at the Energy Ministry said an Aramco administrative building in Riyadh came under an attempted attack on Sunday 8 November. Falling shrapnel caused minor damage and no injuries, the source said. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted two Houthi cruise missiles aimed at the Riyadh and southern regions and a ballistic missile aimed at the Eastern Region. ^{[14, 13]}

Who it reaches

Scorpio Tankers (STNG) is adjacent: its third-quarter release says the conflict 'lengthened refined product voyages and kept the global fleet dislocated'. Its LR2 tankers earned $55,184 a day in the quarter, against $31,482 a year earlier, the release says. ^[18]

Valero (VLO) and Phillips 66 (PSX) are adjacent: Reuters reported that the Iran conflict sent tanker rates up and gave US Gulf Coast refiners a cost edge over Asian rivals. Valero's Randy Hawkins said freight from the US Gulf Coast to Asia was $30 to $35 a barrel, against about $5 a year earlier. Phillips 66 said it secured more than 40 time-charter vessels before the conflict, about 40 percent of its shipping needs. ^[19]

Where the sources disagree

The timing differs: Anadolu wrote that the Guards spoke late on Saturday, AFP that they spoke on Sunday through IRNA, and IANS early on Sunday through Sepah News. AP reported earlier on Saturday a separate Iranian claim that one tanker east of the strait hit a mine. Only UKMTO's Khasab report is from a maritime agency, and it names no cause. ^{[8, 9, 10, 11, 4]}

CENTCOM counts five merchant ships disabled since July, while ABC News called the Huda the 11th ship CENTCOM has disabled since the blockade began. DPA said it was not clear whether the Khor Fakkan bulk carrier was the Huda, and the UAE National Guard did not name the burning cargo ship whose 22 crew it rescued. The desk could not read the pages of CENTCOM and UKMTO, which refused automated access; their words here come through the press. ^{[1, 17, 7, 15]}

What settles it next

UKMTO said investigations into the Khor Fakkan incident were under way and advised ships near Khasab to transit with caution. Neither agency had named the burning tanker by Sunday, according to Arab Times and Arab News. ^{[6, 4]}

The Energy Information Administration publishes its next Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday 10 November. Its October edition said it assumed oil flows from the Middle East stay constrained through the fourth quarter. ^[16]