Company Analysis

CF Industries Holding, Inc. (CF)

NYSE: CF · Agricultural Chemicals · Northbrook, IL · filing with the SEC since 2005
Grade7.2
◀ Past 7.1● Present 7.4▶ Future 7.0

The company now

CF Industries reported third-quarter 2026 net earnings of $436 million, or $2.87 per diluted share, on net sales of $1.86 billion in a release dated 4 November 1. A year earlier the quarter brought $353 million, or $2.19 per share, on $1.66 billion of sales 1.

Sales volumes rose 7% from a year before, and about 13% once the lost output of the Yazoo City, Mississippi, complex is set aside 1. That plant has been idle since an incident in November 2025, and the company now expects it to resume operations in the first half of 2027 1.

The annual report issued in February had said production would not resume until the fourth quarter of 2026 at the earliest 2. The restart date has therefore moved later, and the company is still finalizing the restoration cost, a substantial part of which it expects insurance to cover 1.

Management expects nitrogen supply and demand to stay constructive for low-cost North American producers, since only about half of Middle East urea exports have left the Persian Gulf since the Iran conflict began 1.

As of Nov 4, 2026. Written by the desk, an AI model, from the sources listed. Nothing here is advice.

Newer filings are on file since this was written; an update is queued.

Where the revenue comes from

fiscal 2025, as filed

Revenue by line of business, fiscal 2025

Line of businessFiscal 2025Fiscal 2024Share of revenue
Ammonia$2.18B$1.74B30.7%
UAN$2.16B$1.68B30.5%
Urea$1.78B$1.60B25.1%
Other Products$545M$503M7.7%
Ammonium Nitrate$421M$419M5.9%

Revenue by region, fiscal 2025

RegionFiscal 2025Fiscal 2024Share of revenue
United States$5.34B$4.42B75.4%
Other foreign$712M$584M10.1%
Canada$598M$534M8.4%
United Kingdom$378M$327M5.3%
North America excluding United States and Canada$58.0M$72.0M0.8%

As tagged in its annual report (Form 10-K, filed Feb 25, 2026 ↗), read from the SEC's financial statement data sets. The year before is the figure the record holds for the prior fiscal year.

The desk's written account, in full. As of Nov 4, 2026. Written by the desk, an AI model, from the sources listed. Nothing here is advice.

Past

Central Farmers Fertilizer Company was founded in 1946 and was owned by regional farm cooperatives for its first 59 years 2. It took the name CF Industries in 1970 2. In 2002 it moved from supplying its owners to a model that put financial performance first, and in August 2005 it listed on the New York Stock Exchange 2.

In April 2010 it bought Terra Industries, a North American nitrogen producer, for $4.6 billion in cash and stock, which brought in five nitrogen plants 2. In March 2014 it sold its Florida phosphate business to The Mosaic Company and became a pure nitrogen company 2.

In February 2016 CHS Inc., a farm cooperative, paid $2.8 billion into CF Industries Nitrogen in return for roughly 11% of that unit 2. The deal also made CHS a long-term customer and, in 2025, its largest, at about 13% of net sales 2.

Net sales rose 71% to $11.19 billion in 2022 from $6.54 billion in 2021, because the average selling price jumped to $610 per ton from $353 3. The company tied that to tight global supply, as high energy costs and geopolitical events cut operating rates elsewhere 3.

The reverse followed in 2023, when the average selling price fell 43% to $347 per ton as lower global energy costs reduced the price needed to meet demand 4. Net sales were $6.63 billion that year 2.

Because of the cost of natural gas in the United Kingdom, the company closed the Ince plant in 2022 and ended ammonia production at Billingham in 2023, importing ammonia since 2.

On 1 December 2023 it bought the Waggaman, Louisiana, ammonia plant from a subsidiary of Incitec Pivot, with 880,000 tons of nameplate capacity, at a purchase price of $1.675 billion 4. Net sales then slipped 10% to $5.94 billion in 2024 and rose 19% to $7.08 billion in 2025 2.

The 2025 gain came from price: the average selling price rose to $372 per ton from $313, while volume was 1% higher 2. In 2025 the company also formed the Blue Point joint venture in April, finished the Donaldsonville carbon capture unit in July and suffered the Yazoo City incident in November 2.

Present

What it makes and sells

The core product is anhydrous ammonia, which is 82% nitrogen, and the company upgrades it into granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN, a liquid fertilizer) and ammonium nitrate (AN) 2. Most of it goes to farms as fertilizer, and AN also goes into explosives 2.

In 2025 ammonia brought $2,176 million of sales on 4,597 thousand tons, UAN $2,161 million, granular urea $1,781 million, AN $421 million and other products $545 million, for $7,084 million in all 2. Other covers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid and aqua ammonia 2.

Buyers are cooperatives, retailers, independent distributors, traders, wholesalers and industrial users 2. Natural gas is the main raw material and made up about 34% of production costs in 2025 2.

Plants and people

The company runs six plants in the United States, two in Canada and one in Billingham in the United Kingdom 2. Donaldsonville, Louisiana, is the largest ammonia complex in the world and Medicine Hat, Alberta, the largest in Canada 2.

The eight North American plants hold about 40% of North American ammonia capacity, 41% of granular urea, 44% of UAN and 19% of AN 2. Year to date the network has run at a 97% utilization rate of available ammonia capacity 1.

Chris Bohn is president and chief executive officer 1. Andrew Scribner, 47, became executive vice president and chief financial officer on 26 May 2026 after working at Kimberly-Clark 6. The company had about 2,900 employees at the end of 2025, 80% of them in the United States 2.

Rivals and current problems

The annual report names Nutrien, Koch Fertilizer, LSB Industries, CVR Partners and Yara International as the main competitors with North American operations 2. It adds that imports from regions with cheaper gas also compete 2.

The main problem is Yazoo City, where an incident in the ammonium nitrate upgrade area idled all production in November 2025 2. The company recorded a $25 million impairment on its North American AN assets after it 2.

The umbrella, in words

CF Industries, Inc. is a 100% owned subsidiary of the parent 2. Five of the six U.S. plants sit in CF Industries Nitrogen, LLC, of which the company owns about 89% and CHS owns the remainder 2.

Beyond that, the company owns a 40% interest in the Blue Point joint venture, with JERA at 35% and Mitsui at 25%, and a 50% interest in Point Lisas Nitrogen Limited in Trinidad 2. The Waggaman plant is wholly owned 2.

Exhibit 21 to the annual report lists, among others, Canadian Fertilizers Limited, CF Fertilisers UK Limited and Point Lisas Nitrogen Limited as subsidiaries 7.

Future

The company says construction of the Blue Point One low-carbon ammonia plant in Modeste, Louisiana, began in August 2026 1. It still projects a cost of about $3.7 billion, including $500 million of contingency, with production expected in 2029 1.

The plant is designed for about 1.4 million metric tons of ammonia a year, and the company plans roughly $550 million of its own storage and loading infrastructure there 2. For 2026 it projects capital spending of about $950 million, excluding the share funded by JERA and Mitsui 1.

At Courtright, Ontario, a design study is under way for a plant that would add more than 400,000 tons a year of diesel exhaust fluid capacity, with a final investment decision expected in 2027 1. The Yazoo City carbon capture project is expected to start up in 2028 1.

The company expects gross ammonia production of about 9.5 million tons in 2026 1. About $1.11 billion remained under its $2 billion repurchase program on 30 September, and the program expires in December 2029 1.

The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.60 per common share on 7 October 2026, payable on 30 November 1. A conference call on the third-quarter results is set for 5 November 8. Controller Richard Hoker plans to retire on 3 March 2027 5.

What it may be looking into

Speculation Speculation, labeled as such: where the clues point, how sure the desk is of each, and what would change it. It is not a forecast and not advice.

  1. Speculation

    CF Industries may sign more long-term low-carbon ammonia supply deals or joint investments beyond Blue Point One.

    Because

    • The annual report says the company is in various stages of discussions with other companies about long-term offtake or joint investments for low-carbon ammonia 2.
    • In 2025 it made its first sales of low-carbon ammonia at a premium, to customers in Europe and Africa, and JERA and Mitsui committed volumes from Blue Point for power generation and steel 2.
    Confidence 50 of 100What would change this A current report announcing a signed offtake or investment agreement would confirm it, while an annual report that drops the line about discussions would weaken it 2.
  2. Speculation

    The company may extend carbon capture to more of its existing plants after Donaldsonville and Yazoo City.

    Because

    • The annual report says it is executing further decarbonization projects in its existing network, and the Donaldsonville unit cost about $200 million against about $100 million expected at Yazoo City 2.
    • ExxonMobil, which stores the captured carbon dioxide, describes Rose as one of many dedicated permanent storage sites it is developing along the Gulf Coast 2.
    Confidence 30 of 100What would change this A capital plan in a later annual report that names carbon capture only at those two plants would weaken it 2.

How the company works

The desk has not read this company's annual report yet.

The record in brief

The desk has not written this company's report yet.

Sources

a number beside a sentence opens its entry in its own document's list
The written account 8 sources · as of Nov 4, 2026
  1. Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K: press release reporting results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 ↗CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (SEC filing) · filed Nov 4, 2026
  2. Form 10-K, annual report for the year ended December 31, 2025 ↗CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (SEC filing) · filed Feb 25, 2026
  3. Form 10-K, annual report for the year ended December 31, 2022 ↗CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (SEC filing) · filed Feb 23, 2023
  4. Form 10-K, annual report for the year ended December 31, 2023 ↗CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (SEC filing) · filed Feb 22, 2024
  5. Form 8-K, departure of an officer (Item 5.02), event of August 31, 2026 ↗CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (SEC filing) · filed Sep 3, 2026
  6. Form 8-K, election of chief financial officer (Item 5.02) ↗CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (SEC filing) · filed May 5, 2026
  7. Exhibit 21 to Form 10-K for 2025: list of subsidiaries ↗CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (SEC filing) · filed Feb 25, 2026
  8. Form 8-K, conference call and presentation for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 ↗CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (SEC filing) · filed Nov 4, 2026
SI Assistanton CF · research, not advice