ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)

NYSE: ZTO · Trucking & Courier Services (No Air) · Shanghai, CN · filing with the SEC since 2016

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Grade6.6

◀ Past 7.2● Present 7.1▶ Future 5.2

1 est.

Overview Business Financials Grade Forecast Sentiment Ownership People Filings Patents Chart

The grade of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

Nine metrics read from its own filings, by tense

Headline grade

6.6/10

◀ Past7.230% of the headline

● Present7.140% of the headline

▶ Future5.230% of the headline

All three tenses have at least two readings, so the archetype blend applies as printed.

Of the nine metrics, 8 read as filed from the record and 1 is an SI estimate, each with its reasoning, its confidence and what would change it on its card.

◀ Past

What did they actually do?

7.2/1030% of the headline grade · 3 of 3 filed

Surviving crises

as filed

6.3/10

Has it survived what it has been through?

No warning events in its filings since 2017.

weight 33% of this tense · 63rd percentile among 8 sector filers · read for itself

From the record

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s filings since 2017 show no warning events in the scan: no bankruptcy or receivership notice, no debt default notice, no exchange listing notice, no restatement warning, no auditor change, no material cyber incident and no late-report notice (its current reports).

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Track record

as filed

8.2/10

What has it actually done, year after year?

+19.6% a year over 10 filed years; profitable in 10 of 10.

weight 45% of this tense · 82nd percentile among 7 sector filers · read for its customers

From the record

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s 10 filed years say what it did: revenue went from CNY 9.8 billion in fiscal 2016 to CNY 49 billion in fiscal 2025, up 19.6% a year; it rose in 9 of 9 years; it never fell from a peak; net income was positive in 10 of 10 of those years (its annual reports).

What it rests on

revenue growth over the filed span19.6%top 7% of its family
the share of years revenue rosetop 14% of its family
the share of filed years with a profittop 36% of its family
the deepest fall from a revenue peak0.0%top 14% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Shareholder treatment

as filed

6.7/10

How has it treated the people who own it?

Share count steady. 40% of cash flow returned. Insiders: 0 sales, 0 purchases.

weight 22% of this tense · 67th percentile among 5 sector filers · read for its shareholders

From the record

Over the 3 fiscal years to 2025-12-31, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s diluted share count held steady, and dividends and buybacks returned about 40% of its operating cash flow over 3 years (its filed statements). Its officers and directors filed 0 sales and 0 purchases of their own stock on the open market in the year to 2026-09-30 (their Form 4 filings).

What it rests on

the share count over the yearstop 42% of its family
cash returned against operating cash flowtop 25% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

● Present

What are they doing right now?

7.1/1040% of the headline grade · 2 of 3 filed, 1 estimated

Financial health

as filed

6.3/10

Is it financially healthy right now?

ROE 14%: 14¢ of profit per shareholder dollar. Leverage 26%: owes 26¢ per asset dollar.

weight 33% of this tense · 64th percentile among 8 sector filers · read for itself

From the record

Return on equity: in the fiscal year ended 2025-12-31, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. earned about 14 cents of profit for every dollar of shareholders' money, and gross profitability: its products earned about 13 cents per dollar of everything the company owns. Leverage: it owed about 26 cents per dollar of assets, and net share issuance: its share count shrank 2.1% over the year (the filed statements).

What it rests on

what it owes per dollar of assetstop 31% of its family
return on equitytop 31% of its family
gross profit against assetsbottom 42% of its family
the share count against the year beforetop 25% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Industry position

as filed

8.6/10

How strong is its position in its industry?

top 14% of 8 in its family; net margin 18.5%.

weight 45% of this tense · 86th percentile among 8 sector filers · read for its customers

From the record

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s standing among 8 graded names in its industry family: revenue of CNY 49 billion in fiscal 2025 is not ranked by size, since the family reports in another currency; a net margin of 18.5% ranks in the top 6%; revenue growth of 11.5% a year over the last 3 filed years ranks in the top 21% (its annual reports).

What it rests on

net margin18.5%top 6% of its family
three-year revenue growth11.5%top 21% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Leadership

SI estimate

5.0/10

What are the people in charge doing?

SI estimate 5.0/10, confidence 15 of 100 (universe median).

weight 22% of this tense · 50th percentile among 3816 sector filers · read for its shareholders

SI estimate Inferred, not read as filed

Why it is an estimate: It files no Form 8-K (a foreign issuer reports on Form 6-K), so officer and director changes cannot be read there; the record of its people begins on 2026-03-16 (a listing, a merger or a first filing under the rules) and its chief executive and most of the people in charge have filed since then, so the record shows a floor of 8 months and cannot see past it; a floor under five years is not read as years in charge, and its family carries too few readings to lean on, so the desk assumes the typical reading over all 3816 companies with one.
What the record cannot read: It files no Form 8-K (a foreign issuer reports on Form 6-K), so officer and director changes cannot be read there; the record of its people begins on 2026-03-16 (a listing, a merger or a first filing under the rules) and its chief executive and most of the people in charge have filed since then, so the record shows a floor of 8 months and cannot see past it; a floor under five years is not read as years in charge.
How it was reasoned: universe median, 3816 readings behind it.
Confidence: 15 of 100
What would change it: Its next annual report on file with the inputs replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

From the record

SI estimate, not a filed reading: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s leadership is put at 5.0 of 10 with a confidence of 15 of 100, because it files no Form 8-K (a foreign issuer reports on Form 6-K), so officer and director changes cannot be read there; the record of its people begins on 2026-03-16 (a listing, a merger or a first filing under the rules) and its chief executive and most of the people in charge have filed since then, so the record shows a floor of 8 months and cannot see past it; a floor under five years is not read as years in charge, and its family carries too few readings to lean on, so the desk assumes the typical reading over all 3816 companies with one. Its next annual report on file with the inputs replaces this estimate with the filed reading.

▶ Future

What are they set up to do next?

5.2/1030% of the headline grade · 3 of 3 filed

Room to expand

as filed

8.3/10

How much room does it have to grow?

top 17% of 8 in its family for room to expand.

weight 22% of this tense · 83rd percentile among 8 sector filers · read for itself

From the record

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s room to grow, from the newest filed statements (fiscal 2025): cash of CNY 10 billion against no long-term debt tagged leaves 11% of its assets as net cash, top 19% of its family; cash from operations less capital spending is 13.8% of revenue (top 6%); a gross margin of 25% (top 25%) (its annual report).

What it rests on

cash less debt against assets11.0%top 19% of its family
cash from operations less capital spending against revenue13.8%top 6% of its family
gross margin25.0%top 25% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Growth drivers

as filed

4.0/10

What could actually drive growth from here?

bottom 40% of 7 in its family for growth drivers.

weight 45% of this tense · 40th percentile among 7 sector filers · read for its customers

From the record

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s growth drivers, from the filed years to fiscal 2025: revenue grew 11.5% a year over the last three filed years against 19.6% over all 10, slowing (bottom 36% of its family); the newest year grew 10.9% (top 36%); capital spending grew -9.6% a year (bottom 21%) (its annual reports). ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. reported 4 product lines in fiscal 2025: Express Delivery Services at CNY 46 billion (93%), Sale of Accessories at CNY 2.4 billion (5%), Freight Forwarding Service at CNY 808 million (2%), and 1 more; 2 of 4 grew against the year before (its annual report).

What it rests on

three-year growth against the whole span-8.1 points a yearbottom 36% of its family
the newest year's revenue growth10.9%top 36% of its family
three-year growth of capital spending-9.6%bottom 21% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

Expectations vs reality

as filed

4.7/10

Did its newest year beat what its own record pointed to?

bottom 47% of 6 in its family for expectations against reality.

weight 33% of this tense · 47th percentile among 6 sector filers · read for its shareholders

From the record

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s newest year against its own record: revenue of CNY 49 billion in fiscal 2025 came in 0.9% below the CNY 50 billion its prior three years' pace pointed to (top 42% of its family); net income of CNY 9.1 billion against a prior three-year average of CNY 8.1 billion (top 42%); a net margin of 18.5% against 20.6% before (bottom 25%) (its annual reports).

What it rests on

revenue against the prior three years' pace-0.9%top 42% of its family
net income against the prior three years' average+12%top 42% of its family
net margin against its prior average-2.1 pointsbottom 25% of its family

A production reading, recomputed from the filings on every data build, read from EDGAR Nov 13, 2026.

The grade is the company against its own industry, from its filings. It is not a view on the share price. How the grade is made

SI Assistanton ZTO · research, not advice